Covid-19: Pushed by deadly second wave, Kerala all-cause deaths set to hit record high in 2021

Kerala Chief Registrar of Births and Deaths shows that May and June witnessed a sharp rise in registered deaths over the corresponding previous years. (File)

Kerala’s all-cause mortality figures could hit a record high with 2021 recording the highest number of January-June deaths in recent memory in a year marked by a devastating second Covid-19 wave.

In the first six months of 2021, Kerala recorded 155,520 all-cause deaths — a 35% jump from 2020 (115,081 deaths), and a 21% jump from the toll in January-June of 2019 (128,667 deaths), The Indian Express reported.

All-cause mortality is the total deaths, including official Covid-19 deaths.

Kerala Chief Registrar of Births and Deaths shows that May and June witnessed a sharp rise in registered deaths over the corresponding previous years.

June recorded the worst mortality rate in recent years, with Kerala reporting 32,501 all-cause deaths — 57% higher from 20,640 all-cause deaths in June 2020 and 20,642 in June 2019.

In May, Kerala registered 28,684 deaths — 33.4% higher than May 2020 (21,488 deaths) and 24.8% higher than May 2019 (22,984 deaths).

Kerala also reported the highest daily Covid-19 deaths — around 150-200 a day — during these months. From May 1 to July 1, Kerala registered 7,927 deaths, excluding the numbers added after the health department’s Covid-19 death reconciliation exercise revised the list.

Earlier, Indian Express investigation had suggested an undercount in the country’s official Covid-19 deaths. However, the exact figure can only be estimated given the way India counts its dead.

As part of the investigation, The Indian Express approached several state governments. Only eight, including Kerala, provided records of deaths registered in April and May 2021 as per the Civil Registration System. Kerala’s figures showed that after the official Covid-19 deaths were removed from the all-cause deaths from April 1 to May 30, the numbers were still 1.23 times the corresponding period in 2019.

Since the pandemic began, Kerala has reported 41,831 Covid-19 deaths as on December 8 — 12,161 of these were added through appeals.

The lockdown impact on deaths in Kerala was evident in March and April 2020 when the state reported 16,176 and 13,338 deaths, respectively. However, in the corresponding months of 2021, the figures hit 24,632 and 21,231, respectively.

The data showed that Kerala’s all-cause mortality in 2020, the first year of the pandemic, had declined to 253,638 from 270,567 in 2019. However, up to September 30, 2021, Kerala recorded 212,712 deaths.

Sources told The Indian Express that the final figures for August and September were likely to be higher, considering the late registration of deaths. According to the state’s statistics department, only 65% deaths are registered within the mandatory 21-day period in Kerala.

The percentage distribution of deaths by month of occurrence in Kerala in recent years showed that July to December recorded more deaths than January to June. This trend was evident even in 2020. With three months of data still to be recorded for 2021, experts predict a surge in total numbers.

All-cause death data for Kerala since 2009 show that the annual figure has been above 2.50 lakh since 2015, a trend attributed to the state’s fast-ageing population.

The state’s crude death rate (the number of deaths per 1,000 people), was 6.74 in 2009. It hit 7.77 in 2019.

With Kerala’s Covid-19 death toll constantly being updated through the reconciliation exercise, the state health department had been saying that any pandemic should be reviewed on the basis of total deaths during the period rather than looking at only Covid-19 deaths.