Crypto week at a glance: Consolidation continues with breakout imminent

On the CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) front, Bank of Thailand has started prototyping a digital currency format with a horizon of three years to implement. More such experiments are likely and will boost adoption of the cryptocurrency market in future.

WisdomTree, a NY based exchange-traded fund (ETF), has filed with the SEC for an Ethereum based ETF. The fund has already applied for a Bitcoin based ETF. ETFs, when approved, will give access to millions to invest in cryptocurrencies indirectly, though a risk of capital being withdrawn from the cryptocurrency market exists in the short term.

In terms of market movements specifically, the month of May witnessed major volatility after some highs in April. Bitcoin reached a low of $30.7K on May 19, a decline of more than 50% when compared to its all-time high price from April. It retested similar levels less than a week later, and constructed a symmetrical triangle pattern in the relatively narrow band between $34K and $38K. Now, symmetrical triangle patterns can break out on either side – up or down, depending on market sentiment.

On June 3 though, Bitcoin shot out of the squeeze and seemed to be heading towards $40K but a ‘break-up’ tweet from Elon Musk got back to toeing the line around $37K. It quickly recovered during the course of the day though, perhaps exhibiting a sign that the market may be getting gradually insulated from Musk’s influence. Over-the-counter (OTC) desks have also seen substantial outflows over the past two weeks, signifying dip-demand from institutional investors. The market cap of Bitcoin is currently floating around $700B.

Long term, Bitcoin continues to have bullish projections from multiple financial institutions for the month of June and beyond, even though some predict another correction to the low $30Ks or even beyond once a ‘relief rally’ has played out. The overall market sentiment regarding Bitcoin is still positive, and we expect that once Bitcoin breaches the $42K level, other altcoins will potentially grow at a higher pace through the month during the course of this relief rally.

Key Support Levels: $38,000, $36,700, $36,000, $34,760, $34,000.

Key Resistance Levels: $38,900, $40,000, $40,760, $41,475, $42,055.

Ethereum (ETH), the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has shown a trend similar to Bitcoin. In the past week, Ethereum has seen a rise of 4% and is now pushing back towards $3,000. On June 3, ETH saw a weekly high of $2,890. In the near future, Ethereum would need to break above the $3,000 mark and hold on to it to maintain an uptrend.

Similarly to Bitcoin, Ethereum has also attracted the attention of major industries and mainstream investors, with Goldman Sachs even giving it a “high chance” of overtaking Bitcoin as a store of value. Ethereum is one of the major blockchains that supports DeFi (Decentralized Finance) applications today. The impending upgrade to the Ethereum blockchain, in Q4 2021, is likely to boost its prices as the coin supply is expected to reduce along with additional functionality.

Overall, we expect recovery for both BTC and ETH post Monday given the general trend of markets being red over the weekend. Among key altcoins, Cardano (ADA), Dogecoin (DOGE) and Polygon (MATIC) are likely to gain when BTC breaks out. DOGE has benefitted from its listing on Coinbase Pro this week along with a potential collaboration with ETH for scalability (as suggested by Ethereum’s founder Vitalik Buterin).

Top gainers during the week (as of 9.45 am, June 6, 2021. Source: CoinMarketCap):

⦁ Theta Fuel (TFUEL), 59.46%

⦁ 1inch (1INCH), 58.75%

⦁ Curve DAO Token (CRV), 50.04%

⦁ Solana (SOL), 47.92%

⦁ Theta (THETA), 42.93%

Top losers during the week (as of 9.45 am, June 6, 2021. Source: CoinMarketCap):

⦁ Horizen (ZEN), 11.94%

⦁ Numeraire (NMR), 9.89

⦁ Polygon (MATIC), 9.49%

⦁ Revain (REV), 7.58%

⦁ Helium (HNT), 5.88%