Fewer rollovers into October series hint at caution amid global risks

Provisionally, Nifty rollovers were around 75%, lower than the three-month average of 84%. Analysts said bullish bets were carried forward in public sector banks, cement, power and real estate companies.

Nifty gained 5.9% and Sensex gained 5.7% in the September series. Nifty Realty was the top sector index gainer in the September series with a gain of 37.5% followed by Nifty Media which gained 35.5% during the period. Information technology and healthcare index gained the least.

Amid global risks such as the US debt ceiling, rising US bond yields after the American central bank’s hawkish comments and China’s Evergrande issue, traders have opted for a cautious approach.

“There is an element of scepticism building up at higher levels. 18,000 will act as a psychological barrier until we get a catalyst for further move-up in the Nifty,” said Sriram Velayudhan, Vice President-Alternative Research at IIFL Securities. “Some round of profit booking is likely to emerge. US yields, debt ceiling newsflows and developments around Covid will be watched…people will wait for fresh triggers,” said Velayudhan.

Stock indices ended down for the third consecutive session on Thursday after hitting record highs a few days ago. Nifty ended down 93.15 points or 0.53% at 17,618.15 while the Sensex ended down 286.91 points or 0.48% at 59,126.36.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold Indian shares worth Rs 2,225.6 crore on Thursday and domestic institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 97.18 crore, showed NSE data.

“FPI data is not promising … they have shorted index futures worth Rs 3,700 crore in the two days before expiry. Their long-short position in a bull market generally is 60-65% but now their net long positions have gone below 50%,” said Siddarth Bhamre, Director-Alternative Investments and Research at InCred Equities. Bhamre added that the dollar index going above 93.5 is also not good news.

Options data show the highest concentration of open interest at 18,000 call and 17,000 put options.

Rajesh Palviya, Head-Technicals and Derivatives at Axis Securities said 17,300 and 17,000 will remain important levels in the next series. “18,000 is a major resistance,” said Palviya. Among sectors, real estate companies saw rollover of long or bullish positions, so it will remain a winning sector, he added.