IPL 2021 Playoffs: One berth, four contenders – All playoffs possibilities in 4 points | Cricket News – Times of India
That leaves four teams (KKR, PBKS, RR, MI) fighting for the fourth spot with KKR having edged ahead in that race with their win over out-of-contention SRH.
Shankar Raghuraman of TOI has done the calculations to show the probabilities of each team qualifying after Sunday’s games, assuming that in any given match the chances of winning or losing are 50-50.
The analysis also ignores net run rates.
Here’s what the qualification chances look like for the four teams in contention for the final spot:
1) KKR are best placed at 12 points with one game to play. Their chances of at least tying for fourth spot have risen sharply to 62.5% and with by far the best net run rate among those in the race, they would feel they have a foot in the door. They have a 37.5% chance of grabbing the last spot without a tie on points. Their task is uncomplicated – win the last game against RR and they will almost certainly qualify. The only hitch could be if MI also wins both its remaining games. In that case, they would be tied on 16 points and depend on NRR to make it.
2) PBKS are next on the table, one of three teams at 10 points, but they cannot qualify without NRR coming into the picture now and even a tied fourth spot is just a 6% chance. Their calculations are far more complicated. They need to win their last game against CSK and hope MI beats RR and RR in turn beats KKR while SRH beats MI. Any one of those not happening will mean curtains for PBKS.
3) RR, currently sixth, are better placed with an extra game in hand. They have a 25% chance of grabbing fourth spot exclusively and a 37.5% chance of being at least tied for fourth. They could qualify even if they lose to MI, but not if they lose to KKR. If they win both, they are sure to qualify.
4) MI is the lowest among the contenders at seventh, but like RR have an extra game, which means their chances of at least tying are also 37.5%, but they have only a 12.5% chance of making the fourth spot without any tie on points. And given that they have the worst NRR among these four teams, that’s not great news. If they win both their remaining games against RR and SRH, and RR beats KKR, they will qualify without any tie.
How are we arriving at these probabilities?
The process starts with listing out every possible scenario that remains in terms of combination of individual match outcomes. As of Monday morning, with 7 games left to play, that means 128 (two possibilities for the first game, each of which has two for the next game and so on, yielding a total of 2 raised to the power 7 or 128). We then look at what each scenario means in terms of the final points tally for each team and what rank that puts them at (ignoring NRR, which cannot be forecast in advance). The probabilities for each team are then calculated by dividing the number of scenarios in which it finishes in the top four by the total number of possible scenarios, as of now 128, and multiplying by 100.
Teams that are on the same number of points can have different probabilities because of what matches they have left and also how matches involving other teams affect their final placing.
What were the playoff possibilities at the end of October 3? Find out HERE.
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