Le Pen shruggs off market ‘doom-mongering’ as French election race tightens

Issued on: 07/04/2022 – 13:52

Long unfazed by what looked like an easy path to re-election for President Emmanuel Macron, markets woke up this week as Le Pen narrowed the gap enough in opinion polls for a potential victory to fall within the margin of error.

Le Pen scoffed at what she called “doom-mongering”, telling RTL radio on Thursday that her programme aimed to support business and “give money back to the French” by lowering VAT as well as France’s contribution to the EU budget.

“The policies I want to implement are not meant for the stock markets, which will be a change from Emmanuel Macron,” she said. “It’s not the markets that create jobs, it’s not international finance.”

Macron is still ahead in all opinion polls. But his late start with a lacklustre campaign has pushed even some in his camp to say a win for Le Pen could be possible.

Polls suggest Le Pen is 3% to 7% ahead of third-place leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, meaning she is likely to qualify for the all-important run-off on April 24.

>> Closing in on Macron: Could Le Pen’s blandest campaign be her most successful yet?

Second-round data also looks encouraging for Le Pen, who has significantly narrowed the gap with Macron since she lost by more than 20 percentage points five years ago.

Some pollsters this week said the gap had shrunk to as little as 4%, with a probable high level of abstention adding uncertainty.

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“There is a dynamic in favour of Marine Le Pen,” said Ifop pollster Frederic Dabi, adding that there was a possibility that she could overtake Macron to lead the first round, though he was still ahead for now.

“The second round will be very tight,” he said, adding that Macron was still the most likely winner but all would depend on which camp is better at getting the vote out.

Macron camp counter-attacks

The prospect of a tight race has pushed France’s borrowing costs up as investors grow jittery over a closer-than-expected race. 

France saw firm investor demand at a monthly long-term bond auction on Thursday, but the public debt management agency had to more than double the interest rate on its 10-year benchmark bond to 1.17% from only 0.52% the previous month.

On Thursday, Macron’s campaign fought back on the economic front.

“I want people to realise what France would be like under Marine Le Pen,” Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told broadcaster Franceinfo. “There would be more inflation,” he said, and more taxes to fund her plan to nationalise toll roads.

“And there would be less sovereignty, because we would be allies of Russia, of Vladimir Putin,” he added, attacking Le Pen over her longstanding admiration of the leader – which she has toned down and nuanced since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The pro-business Institut Montaigne think-tank has said Le Pen’s programme, which aims to lower the retirement age to 60 and cut taxes on energy, could come in at a cost 75% higher than she estimates.

Macron himself, long focused on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is now concentrating his campaign on purchasing power, which Le Pen has successfully focused on for months.

The incumbent president promised on Wednesday to increase pensions as French households struggle with surging prices amid the fallout from the war in Ukraine.

(FRANCE 24 with REUTERS)