NEW DELHI: Amid a steep rise in Covid-19 cases over the last one week, Omicron has replaced Delta as the dominant variant in most metros, including Delhi, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Bangalore and Kolkata even as experts feel cases are likely to peak this month itself.
Currently, overall hospitalisations in the country are low with 90-95% Covid beds vacant but hospitals – particularly in metros – may be under pressure in next few weeks as cases are likely to rise further, officials said.
“Yes, third wave has started. Big cities like Mumbai and Delhi should be peaking within this month if things continue as they are,” says Anurag Agrawal, director at CSIR Institute Of Genomics and Integrative Biology.
According to Dr N K Arora, chairman, National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (NTAGI), around 75-80% of the cases in most metros are infected with the new Omicron variant of SARS-CoV2. However, the proportion of Omicron detected through genome-sequencing of overall samples collected from across the country is still low at around 28%.
The Standing Technical Sub Committee of the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation for Covid-19 is expected to meet this week to discuss various modelling projections and assess the rise in cases over next few weeks.
“Most of the states now have Omicron. The number of cases have exponentially increased in last one week and are likely to rise further over next few days and weeks. The doubling time is around three-four days. We are in third wave, there is no doubt about that,” Dr Arora said. He, however, said different states or regions may face peak at different time with a gap of four-five days as the caseload will travel from metros to Tier 1 and 2 cities.
Despite the rise in cases and a higher transmissibility of Omicron variant as compared to Delta, overall hospitalisations are proportionately low so far as most cases are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms, experts said.
“Hospitalisation in metros like Delhi and Mumbai are more because they are also getting many migrants from other cities. They may get overwhelmed over next few weeks,” Dr Arora said. Most of the patients seeking hospital care are elderly and those with comorbidities, he added.
The Centre on Tuesday asked states and UTs to review infrastructure preparedness, including re-establishment of field and makeshift facilities, so that they are not found wanting if there is a surge in hospital admissions due to escalation in Covid cases.
“You may review this matter at your level regularly,” Arti Ahuja, additional secretary in the health ministry, wrote to states.
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