Rams vs. New Orleans Saints: Betting odds, lines and picks against the spread

With Cooper Kupp sidelined and Matthew Stafford still in concussion protocol, the Rams are a lot closer to “Be Bad for Bryce (Young)” or “Stink for (C.J.) Stroud” than they are to repeating as Super Bowl champs. Of course, with Stafford signed through 2026, a high draft pick would mean a player at another position.

Here’s how things stand for the Rams heading into Sunday’s matchup:

Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3, 39)

The Saints hadn’t even announced a starting quarterback by the time the Rams moved out to being a three-point underdog. Once news of the severity of Kupp’s injury hit the wire, the line moved to +4. Interestingly, the announcement that Andy Dalton, who has seven interceptions in seven games, would get the start didn’t sway the line at all in L.A.’s favor.

The line has already moved back to +3 with the expectation that Stafford will play, but the loss of Kupp is immeasurably large. He has accounted for nearly 34% of the team’s catches and nearly 38% of the receiving yards. No other receiver is averaging more than 4.9 receptions per game or 42.8 receiving yards per game. This would be a great time for Allen Robinson to step up.

The Saints have actually managed 5.8 yards per play this season, but are -12 in turnover margin to take away a lot of the good things that they have done on offense. New Orleans has 19 turnovers, including 12 interceptions. They’ve run the ball much more effectively than the Rams (who hasn’t?) and have averaged more adjusted net yards per pass attempt, which does take interceptions into the equation.

The major question each week has been about how the Rams score points. Kupp has 11 of the team’s 32 red zone targets and eight of the 16 catches. New Orleans boasts a league average defense in a lot of ways, but a lot of defenses have looked better than they are against the Rams. This week seems like it has the potential to play out in the same manner.

It is hard to recommend a bet on the spread or total because of Stafford’s status, but confidence was certainly low in the Rams before and is extremely low now without Kupp. The defense could force some takeaways to keep this one close and the Saints have squandered a lot of their yardage by not turning it into points. An ugly game at the Superdome wouldn’t surprise anybody with or without Stafford.

Pick: Under 39

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