Tool developed to identify lung cancer risk earlier

Researchers have created a tool that can identify the people most at risk of developing lung cancer in the next 10 years, and therefore refer them for screening earlier.

The ‘CanPredict’ tool has been developed by a team from the universities of Oxford and Nottingham using the anonymised health records of over 19 million adults from across the UK.

Lung cancer is the second most common cancer and the leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide.

However, lung cancer screening has been shown to improve survival rates. Last September, the UK National Screening Committee recommended using targeted lung cancer screening. However, it did not recommend which tools would best be used for targeting screening at people most at risk.

Using CT scanning for lung cancer isn’t something the NHS can do en masse. Therefore, clinicians are keen to find ways to target those at the greatest risk and put them forward for screening.

CanPredict works by examining existing patient health records, so could feasibly be run on a per GP surgery basis or nationally, the researchers have argued. It then automatically prioritises patients and alerts the GPs that that person might benefit from further screening.

Professor Fergus Gleeson, co-author of the study and professor of radiology in the Department of Oncology at Oxford University, said: “Around 48,500 people are diagnosed with lung cancer each year in the UK. In its early stages, there are usually no obvious signs or symptoms, and it can go undetected for some time.

“Current methods to target screening rely on doctors recognising high-risk individuals or using tools based on using patient questionnaires to score risk and put those at highest forward,” he added.

Professor Julia Hippisley-Cox, senior author and professor of clinical epidemiology and general practice and the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences at Oxford University, said: “Improving early diagnosis of lung cancer is incredibly important both for the NHS but especially for patients and their families. We hope that this new validated risk tool will help better prioritise patients for screening and ultimately help spot lung cancer earlier when treatments are more likely to help.”

A paper on the tool has been published in the journal Lancet Respiratory Medicine.