Updated Methodology Developed for Estimating Pregnancy Rates

WEDNSDAY, April 12, 2023 (HealthDay News) — From 2010 to 2019, there was a decrease in the estimated overall pregnancy rate, based on an updated methodology described in a report published online April 12 in the National Center for Health Statistics Vital and Health Statistics Series.

Lauren M. Rossen, Ph.D., from the National Center for Health Statistics in Hyattsville, Maryland, and colleagues describe an updated methodology for estimating overall and unintended pregnancy rates during 2010 to 2019 in the United States. Missing information on induced abortions was imputed using machine learning models, and data integration models were used to combine estimates of abortions, live births, and pregnancy losses to produce estimates of the total numbers of pregnancies.

The researchers found that in females aged 15 to 44 years, there were an estimated 6,069,000 pregnancies in 2010, with a 9 percent decline noted to 5,507,000 in 2019. The overall pregnancy rate was 97.3 estimated pregnancies per 1,000 females aged 15 to 44 years in 2010, which decreased 12 percent to 85.6 in 2019. From 2010 to 2019, there was a decrease in the proportion of unintended pregnancies from 43.3 to 41.6 percent.

“The methodology described in this report allows for the publication of more timely estimates of overall and unintended pregnancy rates to inform policies and programs to decrease the percentage of unintended pregnancy,” the authors write.